One of the most influential stories of 2026 has been surging oil prices.
Crude oil has gone past US$107 per barrel this week after Saudi Arabia closed its east-west oil pipeline following a drone attack.
A new report from VanEck has reinforced that if oil stays near these levels, the consequences will reach much further than the energy sector.
Oil prices are elevated in 2026 because the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted production and shipping.
Tight inventories and limited spare capacity have amplified the impact of these disruptions.
According to VanEck, if oil remains at these levels and trimmed mean inflation stays above 3%, the case for further rate rises will be hard to dismiss.
A prolonged oil shock could leave a second increase in play.
Higher oil prices can also support the earnings of energy producers and refiners, creating opportunities for portfolios positioned to benefit.
In fact, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is up 32% year to date.
From the beginning of 2026 to the end of August, global oil refiners returned around 50% and Australian oil refiner Ampol Ltd gained close to 40%.
As of August 2026, oil and gas represented 19.2% of the fund.
The structure of the fund also caps each company at 8% at rebalance, preventing one company, such as BHP Group Ltd, from dominating the portfolio.