A gap looms between the Albanese government’s goal of 82% renewable energy and planned solar and wind projects.
The challenges of Australia’s energy transition – from a system once fired by coal and gas to one powered by solar, wind and supporting technologies – are being underlined on an almost weekly basis.
On Tuesday, the Carroll Labor government in Victoria announced a review of the Western Renewables Link, a transmission line due to be completed in 2029, only days after scrapping one of its renewable energy zones.
Queensland moved ahead with plans for the nation’s largest datacentre, having rejected the federal government’s push to power the industry with renewables.
The 82% figure wasn’t meant to be a target – it started as a projection of what was possible before Labor was elected in 2022, but morphed into a national goal in the months afterwards.
Back then, the target was ambitious, but would have been achievable with sustained effort and investment, says Dr Dylan McConnell, an energy systems researcher at the University of New South Wales.
An additional 8.5GW of wind and 9.5GW of solar needs to be planned and built, McConnell says, drawing on data from the Australian energy market operator.
Tristan Edis, the director of analysis and advisory at research and analytics firm Green Energy Markets, says there’s enough capacity in the pipeline to meet the government’s 2030 target.
Governments can’t afford to take their foot off the pedal, Edis says, because renewables underpin the cuts needed to meet Australia’s 62-70% emissions reduction target in 2035, as other sectors including industry, transport and buildings electrify.