Australia's current El Niño could become the strongest on record, but the Bureau of Meteorology has said that doesn't necessarily mean the country is headed for a hot and dry summer.
The BoM says models show the El Niño underway in the Pacific Ocean could produce the highest central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly since records began in 1950.
An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warm, triggering changes in atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.
The BoM says the current event is likely to become the strongest recorded based on forecast sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific.
During the 1982-83 El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies peaked at around 2.6C above average in January 1983.
The BoM has warned against assuming a stronger El Niño automatically means conditions for Australia.
"Every El Niño is different," it said in an advisory it released on Tuesday.
Australia's weather is influenced by a combination of climate drivers, including El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole, surrounding sea surface temperatures and seasonal changes, as well as the longer-term effects of climate change.
The previous El Niño was considered a moderate-to-strong event.
The BoM's latest long-range forecast, issued on 10 September, shows most of Australia is likely to experience above-average temperatures over the coming months.
Between October and December, below-average rainfall is likely across parts of south-eastern Australia, including southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.
Despite El Niño's association with dry conditions in Australia, 2026 has so far been wetter than usual across large parts of the country.