The country will be home to 40 million people, but fewer people will be having even fewer babies.
Australia in the 2060s will have an older population that is working harder while facing the rapid expansion of AI, the climate change and geopolitical tensions.
Households will have more super, and rely less on the aged pension in retirement. The government projects superannuation drawdowns to rise to almost 6% of GDP by 2066, while spending on the aged pension will fall from 2.3% to 1.8% of GDP.
The current inability of younger generations to crack into the housing market will have longer term impacts, which the government says it hopes to turn around through its tax changes.
Home ownership is a theme of the report, and while it does not predict the 2060s home ownership rate, it provides sober insight into today’s housing shortage.
Had home ownership rates remained at 1981 levels, an additional 250,000 people aged 25 to 34 would now own their own home, with or without a mortgage, according to the report.
Treasury estimates 80 to 90% of investor housing lending had gone towards buying existing housing stock rather than new homes since 2019.
Life expectancies will increase to 89.5 years for women and 86.1 for men.
The birthrate is expected to decline from 1.44 babies per female to 1.34 by 2066.
By 2066, Treasury modelling shows heat stress could reduce crop yields by 3.6% under a 3C+ scenario, or 1.2% under the Paris-aligned scenario.